[Note: Published in Secular Politics on May 23, 2025]
Today, we continue the analysis of secular voters in 2024, examining ideology or how voters self-identify based on their views (liberal, conservative, or moderate). Among the overall voting population, 29% identify as liberal or very liberal, 37% as conservative or conservative, and 33% as moderate. This indicates a conservative bent in the general voting population, which may explain Trump’s success in the popular vote.
Conversely, secular voters have a markedly different distribution: nearly half (49%) identify as liberal, about 68% more likely than the general population. They identify as moderate at a similar rate to the general population: 34% of secular voters identify as moderate, compared to 33% of 2024 voters. Less than one in five (17%) of secular voters in 2024 identified as conservative, significantly lower than the general population (37%).
Regarding the Harris voter base, a majority are liberal, with very few identifying as conservative (less than one in ten, or 8%). Interestingly, there is a greater proportion of self-defined moderate voters among Harris voters than among Trump voters. About two-thirds (66%) of Trump voters were conservative, though just 53% of Harris voters were liberal.
Among secular Harris voters, two-thirds identify as liberal, while only 43% of Trump voters consider themselves conservative. This means that Trump has a greater need to attract moderate secular voters to strengthen his coalition, a reverse of the situation among the general voting population. Though only 30% of secular Harris voters were moderates, they accounted for nearly two-thirds of secular moderates.
Secular voters play a crucial role in the Democratic coalition. They accounted for nearly one-third of Harris’s votes and represent a significant portion of those identified as liberals, since two-thirds of secular voters who supported Harris were liberals. This is notable because nearly 40% of self-identified liberal voters are secular. While secular voters are vital to the Democratic Party, many also identify as moderate, an important aspect of the electoral strategy for both parties, particularly the Democrats.
Can the Democrats attract secular, moderate voters by engaging in neoconservative pandering and campaigning alongside figures like Liz Cheney? Should they focus on maintaining the status quo rather than addressing issues like Christian nationalism or economic issues that affect everyone?
It’s worth considering that some secular voters who supported Trump may have done so for anti-incumbency issues, as he received less than three of every ten secular votes, with only about half of those coming from conservatives. If Democrats had highlighted the threats coming from Christian Nationalism or the coming dismantling of the already precarious social safety net, many of those moderate voters, particularly the sizeable secular cohort, could have voted for them.
